What to Watch For in Tonight's South Carolina GOP Debate

Tonight’s CNN debate in Charleston, South Carolina, could well be the last stand for Newt Gingrich. Politico’s most recent poll, released this morning, shows the former Speaker of the House bearing down on Governor-bot Romney, closing the gap to about seven points.

With only two days to go, and so much on the line, expect fireworks at tonight’s debate — or at least what passes for pyrotechnics at southern GOP function.

South Carolina has something of a history for producing testy debates. Who could forget this particular exchange between then Senators Obama and Clinton?

Gingrich has to leave it all in the ring tonight — it’s do or die. Let’s see if he brings it.

Here’s what I anticipate:

The teddy bear will get angry, maybe.

Tonight is really make or break for Newt. He won’t play in Florida, and his campaign simply can’t sustain itself through Super Tuesday. According to CNN, many of Romney’s supporters are abandoning the USS Boring and climbing aboard the Newt train. Gingrich smells blood.

The former Speaker of the House is by far the most skilled debater on the stage. If he gets enough steam behind him (catch the continued metaphor? Steam train?), he has the ability to destroy Romney and whoever else is unlucky enough to stand in his way.

But this very much depends on which Speaker Gingrich shows up tonight. Will it be the combative and articulate “pious baloney” firebrand that graced Concord, New Hampshire, only two short weeks ago?

Or will it be the arrogant, professorial also-ran that attended the Yahoo/WMUR debate in Manchester just the night before? Only Gingrich and a few select campaign aides know…

Romney will be further pushed on his personal finances.

On Tuesday, Governor Romney was quizzed on his 2010-11 earnings and he claimed that some of his income was derived from speaking fees, “but not very much.”

This will be problematic for Mr. Romney, as “not very much” to him would seem to be a heck of a lot to most Americans. (In 2010 alone, he <a href="On Tuesday, Governor Romney was quizzed on his 2010-11 earnings and he claimed that some of his income was derived from speaking fees, “but not very much.”

This will be problematic for Mr. Romney, as “not very much” to him would seem to be a heck of a lot to most Americans. (In 2010 alone, he earned more than $374,000 by impersonating Anthony Robbins, or about nine times the average salary in South Carolina.)

This paired with his reluctance to release his tax returns and his admission to paying a lower tax rate than most, (a measly 15%), leaves him wide open to attacks from all sides.

And this includes the CNN moderators, who rarely turndown an opportunity to grab a sensational headline.

(Interesting note: Papa Romney is widely believed to be the first candidate to ever release his tax returns, doing so for his 1968 White House run.)

Speaker Gingrich has ridden this populist wave perfectly, announcing yesterday that he gave 31% of income to the taxman last year. He will also release his full tax return prior to today’s debate.

Ron Paul will be even more marginalized

Nobody in the media or GOP establishment takes Ron Paul seriously. This bothers the little Texan. During the past year’s 867 (or maybe it just feels like that many…) GOP debates, Mr. Paul has had to battle to even get noticed. You’d think that with only four candidates still on stage that his airtime might increase proportionately. It won’t.

Tonight’s debate will be Gingrich’s time to shine, and the only candidate who’ll even come close to getting in between him and the bright lights of CNN could be Mitt Romney. Ron Paul will be pushed to the side and offered the occasional perfunctory question to which he’ll respond with his usual liberty-loving ramblings.

Santorum will hit Newt and Mitt from the right

Rick Santorum is wearing his sweater vests with newfound pride following his endorsement from Texan evangelical leaders over the weekend. What, if any, affect this will have in South Carolina is yet to be seen.

But with “the other Rick” dropping out today, Santorum now pretty much has the right of the stage all to himself. He would be crazy not to capitalize on this.

South Carolina has a huge bloc of evangelical voters who just won’t stomach Mormon Mitt, pot-peddling Paul or philandering Newt.

Santorum will need to come out hard on family values, and hit Romney repeatedly on his ever-changing positions on abortion and gay marriage. The same is true for Newt, who is extremely vulnerable to character attacks and his positions on climate change.

For those of you keeping score tonight, live tweet me during the debate @elliott83, or comment below. Full wrap up and postmortem tomorrow.

Elliott's blog, "What to Watch For in Tonight's South Carolina GOP Debate" originally appeared in Forbes.com on Janueary 19, 2012